Walking--Not Just for Cities Anymore

I just had a debate with Joel Kotkin, whom many consider to be an apologist for sprawl. Surprisingly, there is a convergence between his view of the next generation of real estate and infrastructure development and mine: a constellation of pedestrian-friendly urban development spread throughout metropolitan areas, redeveloping parts of the central city and transforming the inner, and some outer, suburbs. There are certainly differences between the two of us: I happen to see significant pent-up demand for walkable urban development and massive over-building of fringe car-oriented suburban housing and commercial development.Many people like Microsoft Office.

In fact, I see compelling evidence that the collapse of fringe drivable suburban markets was the catalyst for the Great Recession, and the lack of walkable urban development due to inadequate infrastructure and zoning is a major reason for the recovery’s sluggishness. Joel feels the demand for walkable urban development is a fraction of the future growth in households. I think rail transit, biking and walking infrastructure are crucial to make this walkable urban future happen; Joel thinks bus rapid transit is as far as we have to go in the transit world… making cars more technologically efficient is his main answer.Microsoft Office 2007 is welcomed by the whole world.

Though, stepping back, Joel and I agree on the main issue, the redevelopment of the central city and the transformation of the suburbs into more human scaled environments, the reason we may disagree on the magnitude of what I think is a structural shift in how we build is the continued use of obsolete terms and data sets.Office 2010 –save your time and save your money.

106

On the Map: Construction Concentration=Wrenching Recovery

week’s jobs report turned out to be a general disappointment, but it was probably especially troubling to metros that rely heavily on construction for jobs and output. That industry shed another 22,000 jobs in June, completely wiping out small gains it had made in February and March of this year. Since the start of the national recession in December of 2007, construction has lost a whopping 1.9 million jobs—or more than a quarter of its pre-recession employment level.Office 2007 makes life great!

Not surprisingly, metros across the country are not absorbing these declines uniformly. Brookings’ State of Metropolitan America report examines the factors shaping today’s metros and thus shaping the nation, including employment by industry.  In 2007, nine metro areas--all of them in the Sun Belt--relied on construction for more than 10 percent of their total employment (see map below the fold). Another 18 metros--mostly in the South and West--had employment shares between 9 and 10 percent.Office 2007 download is on sale now!

How are these construction-centric metros faring today? Not coincidentally, their economies are among those that have been hit hardest by the housing bust and subsequent recession according to the MetroMonitor. Of those nine metros that relied on construction for at least 10 percent of employment, seven had lost more than 11 percent of their pre-recession job-levels by the first quarter of this year. Cape Coral, which had the highest concentration of construction employment in the country in 2007, had lost 16.4 percent of its peak employment level (which it reached in the fourth quarter of 2006).Office 2010 key is for you now!